For the first time, Beijing’s population is growing negatively. How many people have flowed into Beijing!

For the first time, Beijing’s population is growing negatively. How many people have flowed into Beijing!

Recently, the permanent population data of all provinces and municipalities in 2017 have been published one after another, and a new phenomenon has emerged – the first negative growth of Beijing’s population in recent years! And in the first five years, Tianjin’s permanent population, the number one in the country, declined even more. We know that last year, under the policy of alleviating Beijing’s metropolitan diseases, the relief of non-capital functions has achieved certain results.



So where are the people who fled Beijing?


We can start by looking at how the population moved over the past decade or so before 2016.



Contrast Map of Permanent Resident Population Growth in Prefecture-level Cities of China from 2000 to 2010


From 2011 to 2016, the population flow is gradually inclined to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.



China’s population density contour in 2016


From the contour of population density in China in 2016, the population density of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is the highest. This is the pattern of population distribution created by population migration in the past. The new trend of population migration in 2017 will continue in the future and will be further strengthened.


Looking back on this trend, we believe that population gathering cannot escape these types of cities.


Category 1: Guangzhou and Shenzhen — “We are first-tier cities, but we are very grounded in gas.”


Category II: Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an and Changsha — “We are serious in attracting talents”


The third category: the largest provincial capital city – “sitting in a labor-intensive province, enjoying the demographic dividend”


Category IV: Common prefecture-level cities with larger population than provincial capitals and still growing dimly — “stifling voices and gathering popularity”


The fifth category: the third and fourth-tier cities around the core cities — “thighs are not for everyone to hold”


The property market around Beijing falls into the fifth category. Dependent on the periphery of the capital, the innate location advantage is the core competitiveness around Beijing.


As far as Beijing is concerned, the price of housing is high, it is difficult to settle down, the purchase restriction is strict, and the threshold is getting higher and higher, which creates conditions for the development of the real estate market of the three or four-tier cities around them. In contrast, these cities are not too friendly. Especially with the increasing coordination of urban agglomerations, the barriers between Beijing and the three or four-tier cities around them are declining. Working in Beijing and living around Beijing are becoming more and more common.


They work in Beijing and live in Tianjin and Hebei, especially in the districts and counties nearer to Beijing. The more such people live, such as Langfang Sanhe, Xianghe, Zhuozhou in Baoding and Wuqing in Tianjin, they can reach the center of Beijing in about an hour.


Therefore, the above five types of cities will be this round of population inflow cities, but also the real estate market development opportunities cities.

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